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Santa Rita vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
2 – 2
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
5/14/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 29Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Santa Rita39%
×Draw31%
Recreativo do Libolo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.06
Recreativo do Libolo
0.90

Santa Rita creates 18% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 99 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
0.77
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

Santa Rita
1.07
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
70%
Santa Rita or Recreativo do Libolo
69%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
61%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
15%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
65%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
29%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
9%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
59%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
23%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
56%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Rita scores more
39%
level
31%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
30%

Santa Rita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Santa Rita 2–2 Recreativo do Libolo

Santa Rita and Recreativo do Libolo drew 2-2 in Girabola on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.