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Recreativo do Libolo vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
5/3/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 27Estádio Mário Álvaro Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo48%
×Draw30%
Santa Rita22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.20
Santa Rita
0.70

Recreativo do Libolo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 68 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.08
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.90
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
78%
Recreativo do Libolo or Santa Rita
70%
Draw or Santa Rita
52%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
21%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
70%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
34%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
12%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
50%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
16%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
69%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.08 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
48%
level
30%
Santa Rita scores more
22%

Recreativo do Libolo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo do Libolo vs Santa Rita

Santa Rita beat Recreativo do Libolo 1-0 in Girabola on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Álvaro Pacheco in Calulo.