Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Rita vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
0 – 3
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
8/18/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio 4 de Janeiro (Uíge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Santa Rita37%
×Draw32%
Recreativo da Caála32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.00
Recreativo da Caála
0.91

Santa Rita creates 10% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 50 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
0.77
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

Santa Rita
1.07
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
68%
Santa Rita or Recreativo da Caála
68%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
63%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
14%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
63%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
26%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
8%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
60%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
23%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
54%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Rita scores more
37%
level
32%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
32%

Santa Rita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Santa Rita 0–3 Recreativo da Caála

Recreativo da Caála beat Santa Rita 3-0 in Girabola on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro (Uíge).