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Recreativo da Caála vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
1 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
5/2/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio Mártires da Canhala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Recreativo da Caála57%
×Draw30%
Santa Rita13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
1.23
Santa Rita
0.42

Recreativo da Caála creates 193% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
1.15
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.35
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
87%
Recreativo da Caála or Santa Rita
70%
Draw or Santa Rita
43%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
27%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
71%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
35%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
13%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
34%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
7%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
82%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.35 · 48 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.15 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
57%
level
30%
Santa Rita scores more
13%

Recreativo da Caála at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Recreativo da Caála 1–0 Santa Rita

Recreativo da Caála beat Santa Rita 1-0 in Girabola on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Canhala in Caála.