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Santa Rita vs Luanda City — Girabola 2019

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luanda City
Luanda City
4/27/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Santa Rita48%
×Draw28%
Luanda City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.32
Luanda City
0.85

Santa Rita creates 55% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 30 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
0.77
Luanda City
0.63

allows per match

Santa Rita
1.07
Luanda City
1.87

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Luanda City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Luanda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
76%
Santa Rita or Luanda City
72%
Draw or Luanda City
52%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
22%
Luanda City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
73%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
38%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
15%
Luanda City 1+ goals
57%
Luanda City 2+ goals
21%
Luanda City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
66%
Luanda City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Luanda City away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Luanda City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Luanda City attack 0.63 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santa Rita scores more
48%
level
28%
Luanda City scores more
24%

Santa Rita at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Santa Rita 1–0 Luanda City

Santa Rita beat Luanda City 1-0 in Girabola on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.