Luanda City 2–0 Santa Rita: Result & Stats

Luanda City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Rita

11/24/2024

Girabola · Round 11Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Luanda City43%

×Draw31%

Santa Rita26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luanda CityExpected goals in this matchSanta Rita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.80

Luanda City

1.11

Santa Rita

0.80

Luanda City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

0.90

creates per match

0.50

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Luanda City

0.90

Santa Rita

0.50

allows per match

Luanda City

1.10

Santa Rita

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luanda City+0.00on par

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda City ↓

Santa Rita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Luanda City or draw

74%

Luanda City or Santa Rita

69%

Draw or Santa Rita

57%

Winning margin

Luanda City wins by 2+

18%

Santa Rita wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Luanda City 1+ goals

67%

Luanda City 2+ goals

30%

Luanda City 3+ goals

10%

Santa Rita 1+ goals

55%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

19%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Luanda City (draw refunded)

62%

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda City at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda City attack 0.90 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Luanda City defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luanda City scores more

43%

level

31%

Santa Rita scores more

26%

Luanda City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luanda City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff