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Santa Rita vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
CANC
00:00
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
4/26/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santa Rita51%
×Draw28%
Ferroviário do Huambo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.33
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.74

Santa Rita creates 80% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
0.77
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Santa Rita
1.07
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
79%
Santa Rita or Ferroviário do Huambo
72%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
49%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
24%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
74%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
38%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
15%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
52%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
17%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
71%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santa Rita scores more
51%
level
28%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
21%

Santa Rita at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santa Rita host Ferroviário do Huambo

April 26, 2020: Santa Rita take on Ferroviário do Huambo in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.