Ferroviário do Huambo 0–3 Santa Rita

Ferroviário do Huambo

FT

0 – 3

Santa Rita

1/31/2021

Girabola · Round 7Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo28%

×Draw31%

Santa Rita40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviário do HuamboExpected goals in this matchSanta Rita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.07

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.85

Santa Rita

1.07

Santa Rita creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

0.38

creates per match

0.50

1.65

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.38

Santa Rita

0.50

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.65

Santa Rita

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Santa Rita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw

60%

Ferroviário do Huambo or Santa Rita

69%

Draw or Santa Rita

72%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+

9%

Santa Rita wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals

57%

Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals

21%

Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals

5%

Santa Rita 1+ goals

66%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

29%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)

41%

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.85

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more

28%

level

31%

Santa Rita scores more

40%

Santa Rita at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff