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Santa Rita vs AO Itabaiana — Serie D 2018

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
4/22/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Olival Elias de Morais (Boca da Mata, Alagoas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santa Rita27%
×Draw21%
AO Itabaiana52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.43
AO Itabaiana
2.06

AO Itabaiana creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 36 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
1.67
AO Itabaiana
1.11

allows per match

Santa Rita
3.00
AO Itabaiana
1.19

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

AO Itabaiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
48%
Santa Rita or AO Itabaiana
79%
Draw or AO Itabaiana
73%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
12%
AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
76%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
42%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
17%
AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
87%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
61%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
34%
AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 1.67 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

AO Itabaiana attack 1.11 + Santa Rita defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santa Rita scores more
27%
level
21%
AO Itabaiana scores more
52%

AO Itabaiana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Rita 2 – 4 AO Itabaiana

AO Itabaiana beat Santa Rita 4-2 in Serie D on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Olival Elias de Morais (Boca da Mata, Alagoas).