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AO Itabaiana vs Santa Rita — Serie D 2018

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Etelvino Mendonça (Itabaiana, Sergipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AO Itabaiana73%
×Draw18%
Santa Rita9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
2.18
Santa Rita
0.63

AO Itabaiana creates 246% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 3 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
2.03
Santa Rita
0.33

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
0.92
Santa Rita
2.33

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
91%
AO Itabaiana or Santa Rita
82%
Draw or Santa Rita
27%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
48%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
89%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
64%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
37%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
47%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
13%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
89%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 2.03 + Santa Rita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.18

Santa Rita attack 0.33 + AO Itabaiana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
73%
level
18%
Santa Rita scores more
9%

AO Itabaiana at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: AO Itabaiana 2–1 Santa Rita

AO Itabaiana beat Santa Rita 2-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Etelvino Mendonça (Itabaiana, Sergipe).