Santa Fe 3–1 Popayan: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Popayan

3/7/2024

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Santa Fe53%

×Draw27%

Popayan20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.75

Santa Fe

1.42

Popayan

0.75

Santa Fe creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.41

creates per match

0.79

0.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.41

Popayan

0.79

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.71

Popayan

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

80%

Santa Fe or Popayan

73%

Draw or Popayan

47%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

26%

Popayan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

76%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

41%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

17%

Popayan 1+ goals

53%

Popayan 2+ goals

17%

Popayan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

73%

Popayan (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.41 + Popayan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Popayan attack 0.79 + Santa Fe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Fe scores more

53%

level

27%

Popayan scores more

20%

Santa Fe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff