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Popayan vs Santa Fe — Copa Colombia 2019

Popayan
Popayan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
3/21/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Popayan35%
×Draw27%
Santa Fe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.24
Santa Fe
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Popayan
1.07
Santa Fe
1.24

allows per match

Popayan
1.36
Santa Fe
1.41

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
62%
Popayan or Santa Fe
73%
Draw or Santa Fe
65%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
15%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
71%
Popayan 2+ goals
35%
Popayan 3+ goals
13%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
73%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
37%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
48%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 1.07 + Santa Fe defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24

Santa Fe attack 1.24 + Popayan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Popayan scores more
35%
level
27%
Santa Fe scores more
38%

Santa Fe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Popayan 1–1 Santa Fe

Popayan and Santa Fe drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.