Santa Fe vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Santa Fe56%
Internacional de Bogota18%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Fe creates 111% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Fe ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.58 · 6 matches
Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48
Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Santa Fe defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Santa Fe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Rionegro Aguilas
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Alianza PetroleraLa Equidad
Bucaramanga
Deportivo PastoSanta Fe
Once Caldas
Union Magdalena
Huila
Deportivo Pereira
Chico
Jaguares
EnvigadoRionegro AguilasMillonariosAtletico NacionalAmerica de CaliChicoAlianza PetroleraIndependiente MedellinDeportivo PastoJuniorSanta FeLa EquidadDeportivo PereiraDeportes TolimaDeportivo CaliBucaramangaEnvigadoOnce CaldasJaguaresUnion MagdalenaHuilaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Santa Fe host Internacional de Bogota on Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 23:20. The match is part of the Primera A 2021/2022 season.
Santa Fe 3 – 0 Internacional de Bogota
Santa Fe beat Internacional de Bogota 3-0 in Primera A on September 28, 2025.
Goals: H. Rodallega (45'), O. Fernandez (65'), A. Zapata (69').
Santa Fe controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..