Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Santa Fe

Internacional de Bogota

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Fe

S. Mayo 49'

S. Orozco 45'

H. Rodallega 45' (pen)

4/11/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Internacional de Bogota37%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.18

Internacional de Bogota

1.20

Santa Fe

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 42 away

1.28

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.28

Santa Fe

1.29

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.06

Santa Fe

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

64%

Internacional de Bogota or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

63%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

16%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

12%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

69%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

33%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

51%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Santa Fe defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Santa Fe attack 1.29 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

37%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

36%

Internacional de Bogota at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Rodallega

Santa Fe · F

7.6

Match Events

9'

Samir Mayo

14'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

32'

B. Montano← G. Tegue

33'

Santiago Orozco

39'

Victor Moreno

45'

H. RodallegaPenalty

45'

S. Orozco↳ Y. Abonia

46'

D. Copete← S. Orozco

49'

S. Mayo↳ A. Torralvo

61'

E. Murillo← Y. Velasquez

61'

A. Rodriguez← A. Zapata

67'

Ewil Murillo

69'

F. Chaverra← S. Lopez

69'

S. Tamara←

71'

M. Balanta← H. Mosquera

71'

O. Albornoz← J. Torres

76'

Cristopher Varela

85'

D. Torres← J. Ararat

87'

A. Del Valle← Y. Abonia

90+6'

Ayron Del Valle

90+5'

Fabian Chaverra

90+5'

Marlon Balanta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalSanta

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots13

3Corners7

11Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

293Total Passes407

217Accurate Passes322

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls7

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5