Santa Fe 0–3 Dakota: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

0 – 3

Dakota

10/16/2022

Division di Honor · Round 5Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Santa Fe8%

×Draw12%

Dakota80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchDakota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

3.27

Santa Fe

0.98

Dakota

3.27

Dakota creates 234% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 62 away

1.00

creates per match

3.29

3.25

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.00

Dakota

3.29

allows per match

Santa Fe

3.25

Dakota

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Dakota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

20%

Santa Fe or Dakota

88%

Draw or Dakota

92%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

2%

Dakota wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

62%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

26%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

8%

Dakota 1+ goals

96%

Dakota 2+ goals

83%

Dakota 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

9%

Dakota (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Dakota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Dakota attack 3.29 + Santa Fe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Santa Fe scores more

8%

level

12%

Dakota scores more

80%

Dakota at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff