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Dakota vs Santa Fe — Division di Honor 2019

Dakota
Dakota
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
10/1/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 2Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dakota62%
×Draw18%
Santa Fe20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dakota
2.59
Santa Fe
1.43

Dakota creates 81% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dakota
2.79
Santa Fe
1.60

allows per match

Dakota
1.26
Santa Fe
2.40

finishing

Dakota+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dakota ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dakota or draw
80%
Dakota or Santa Fe
82%
Draw or Santa Fe
38%

Winning margin

Dakota wins by 2+
41%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dakota 1+ goals
92%
Dakota 2+ goals
73%
Dakota 3+ goals
47%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
76%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
42%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dakota (draw refunded)
76%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dakota at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dakota attack 2.79 + Santa Fe defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.59

Santa Fe attack 1.60 + Dakota defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dakota scores more
62%
level
18%
Santa Fe scores more
20%

Dakota at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dakota vs Santa Fe

Dakota beat Santa Fe 4-1 in Division di Honor on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.