Santa Fe 1–1 Corinthians: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

H. Rodallega 59'

Gustavo Henrique 90'

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Santa Fe39%

×Draw34%

Corinthians28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.76

Santa Fe

0.96

Corinthians

0.76

Santa Fe creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.83

creates per match

0.69

0.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Santa Fe

0.83

Corinthians

0.69

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.83

Corinthians

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Corinthians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

72%

Santa Fe or Corinthians

66%

Draw or Corinthians

61%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

14%

Corinthians wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

62%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

25%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

7%

Corinthians 1+ goals

53%

Corinthians 2+ goals

18%

Corinthians 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

58%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 0.83 + Corinthians defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Corinthians attack 0.69 + Santa Fe defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Fe scores more

39%

level

34%

Corinthians scores more

28%

Santa Fe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Gustavo Henrique

Corinthians · D

8.0

Match Events

39'

E. Olivera

44'

Y. A. Perlaza Perea

55'

J. Obrian← Y. A. Perlaza Perea

56'

I. R. Scarpeta Silgado← E. Olivera

59'

H. Rodallega↳ J. Obrian

64'

H. Rodallega

75'

Dieguinho← Andre

79'

A. Zapata← O. Fernandez

79'

L. Palacios← H. Palacios

79'

J. Torres← K. D. Toscano Bassa

81'

A. Carrillo← Raniele

87'

Kaio Cesar← Yuri Alberto

87'

Pedro Raul← Breno Bidon

90+4'

A. Zapata

90'

Gustavo Henrique↳ Matheuzinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaCorinthians

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots12

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.69

4Corners6

17Fouls4

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked4

7Inside Box5

8Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

306Total Passes430

244Accurate Passes362

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.83Goals Prevented0.83

Discipline

17Fouls4

4Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Santa Fe 1–1 Corinthians

Santa Fe and Corinthians drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 7, 2026.

Goals: H. Rodallega (59'), Gustavo Henrique (90').

Corinthians controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.

Santa Fe vs Corinthians — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Santa Fe 1–1 Corinthians