Corinthians 2–0 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Corinthians

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Fe

Gustavo Henrique 80'

Raniele 51'

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Neo Quimica Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Corinthians52%

×Draw27%

Santa Fe21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.82

Corinthians

1.47

Santa Fe

0.82

Corinthians creates 79% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

0.86

0.79

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Corinthians

1.36

Santa Fe

0.86

allows per match

Corinthians

0.79

Santa Fe

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

79%

Corinthians or Santa Fe

73%

Draw or Santa Fe

48%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

27%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

77%

Corinthians 2+ goals

43%

Corinthians 3+ goals

18%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

56%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

20%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

71%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.36 + Santa Fe defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Santa Fe attack 0.86 + Corinthians defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Corinthians scores more

52%

level

27%

Santa Fe scores more

21%

Corinthians at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Gustavo Henrique

Corinthians · D

9.5

Match Events

51'

Raniele↳ Gustavo Henrique

57'

Gabriel Paulista

76'

A. Carrillo← Breno Bidon

76'

Allan← Raniele

77'

E. Mosquera← O. Fernandez

79'

F. Fagundez← J. Torres

80'

Gustavo Henrique↳ R. Garro

81'

J. Lingard← Kayke

86'

Pedro Raul← Yuri Alberto

87'

Z. Labyad← R. Garro

87'

A. Zapata← D. Torres

87'

N. Bustos← H. Rodallega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorinthiansSanta

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots6

1.24Expected Goals (xG)0.30

8Corners5

5Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots6

9On Target1

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

539Total Passes279

468Accurate Passes211

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

0.49Goals Prevented0.49

Discipline

5Fouls20

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0