Santa Fe 0–0 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bucaramanga

12/9/2025

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Santa Fe48%

×Draw30%

Bucaramanga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.71

Santa Fe

1.21

Bucaramanga

0.71

Santa Fe creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.43

Bucaramanga

0.80

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.62

Bucaramanga

1.00

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Santa Fe-0.18scores less

Bucaramanga-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

78%

Santa Fe or Bucaramanga

70%

Draw or Bucaramanga

52%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

21%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

70%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

34%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

51%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

16%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

69%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.62 · 8 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.43 + Bucaramanga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bucaramanga attack 0.80 + Santa Fe defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santa Fe scores more

48%

level

30%

Bucaramanga scores more

22%

Santa Fe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Quintana

Bucaramanga · G

9.0

Match Events

46'

M. Palacios← Y. A. Perlaza Perea

64'

D. Chavez← J. Mosquera

64'

Jhon Vasquez← K. Londono

69'

J. Melendez← J. Angulo

69'

E. Murillo← D. Torres

72'

C. De Las Salas← L. Flores

72'

G. Medina← N. Moreno

87'

A. Mora← J. Torres

87'

E. Sanchez← O. Fernandez

87'

C. Romana← F. Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaBucaramanga

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots8

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.16

4Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots8

4On Target1

9Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

534Total Passes367

475Accurate Passes305

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Offsides1