Santa Fe 1–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

A. Gutierrez 65' (OG)

L. Flores 23'

3/19/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Santa Fe47%

×Draw30%

Bucaramanga24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.79

Santa Fe

1.24

Bucaramanga

0.79

Santa Fe creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

0.90

0.68

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.48

Bucaramanga

0.90

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.68

Bucaramanga

1.00

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Santa Fe-0.05on par

Bucaramanga-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

76%

Santa Fe or Bucaramanga

70%

Draw or Bucaramanga

53%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

21%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

71%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

35%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

13%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

55%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

19%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

66%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.68 · 7 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.48 + Bucaramanga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bucaramanga attack 0.90 + Santa Fe defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santa Fe scores more

47%

level

30%

Bucaramanga scores more

24%

Santa Fe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Y. Velasquez

Santa Fe · M

7.5

Match Events

23'

L. Flores↳ K. Londono

46'

Fabián Sambueza

62'

E. Murillo← D. Torres

62'

A. Rodriguez← L. Rios

64'

Aldair Gutiérrez

65'

A. Penaranda← A. Ponce

65'

A. GutierrezOwn goal

76'

D. Chavez← L. Flores

76'

Jhon Vasquez← K. Londono

78'

O. Albornoz← A. Zapata

81'

Emanuel Olivera

85'

J. Angulo← O. Fernandez

88'

F. Castaneda← F. Sambueza

90'

Ewil Murillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaBucaramanga

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots11

2Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

467Total Passes294

384Accurate Passes209

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1