Santa Cruz 1–2 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Murcia II

5/2/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz31%

×Draw29%

Real Murcia II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.21

Santa Cruz

1.01

Real Murcia II

1.21

Real Murcia II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

0.88

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Santa Cruz

0.88

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.18

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

59%

Santa Cruz or Real Murcia II

71%

Draw or Real Murcia II

69%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

11%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

64%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

27%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

70%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

34%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

43%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

31%

level

29%

Real Murcia II scores more

41%

Real Murcia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 1–2 Real Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat Santa Cruz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.

Santa Cruz vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 1–2 Real Murcia II