Real Murcia II 3–1 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Real Murcia II

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Santa Cruz

1/4/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Murcia II42%

×Draw27%

Santa Cruz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Real Murcia II

1.35

Santa Cruz

1.13

Real Murcia II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

1.89

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

Santa Cruz

1.29

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

Santa Cruz

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Santa Cruz →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

69%

Real Murcia II or Santa Cruz

73%

Draw or Santa Cruz

58%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

19%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

74%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

39%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

15%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

31%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

57%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

42%

level

27%

Santa Cruz scores more

31%

Real Murcia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff