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Santa Cruz vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Muleño
Muleño
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz41%
×Draw28%
Muleño31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.28
Muleño
1.08

Santa Cruz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
69%
Santa Cruz or Muleño
72%
Draw or Muleño
59%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
18%
Muleño wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
72%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
37%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
14%
Muleño 1+ goals
66%
Muleño 2+ goals
29%
Muleño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
57%
Muleño (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Muleño attack 0.99 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
41%
level
28%
Muleño scores more
31%

Santa Cruz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Muleño

Santa Cruz and Muleño drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.