Muleño 0–4 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Muleño

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Cruz

2/22/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muleño26%

×Draw27%

Santa Cruz47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.38

Muleño

0.94

Santa Cruz

1.38

Santa Cruz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

1.29

1.46

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

Santa Cruz

1.29

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

Santa Cruz

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Santa Cruz →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

53%

Muleño or Santa Cruz

73%

Draw or Santa Cruz

74%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

61%

Muleño 2+ goals

24%

Muleño 3+ goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

75%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

40%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

35%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Muleño scores more

26%

level

27%

Santa Cruz scores more

47%

Santa Cruz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 0–4 Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz beat Muleño 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.

Muleño vs Santa Cruz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 0–4 Santa Cruz