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Santa Cruz vs Globo — Serie D 2026

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Globo
Globo
6/14/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Santa Cruz61%
×Draw25%
Globo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.60
Globo
0.62

Santa Cruz creates 158% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
1.33
Globo
0.57

allows per match

Santa Cruz
0.67
Globo
1.87

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Globo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Globo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
86%
Santa Cruz or Globo
75%
Draw or Globo
39%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
34%
Globo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
80%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
47%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
22%
Globo 1+ goals
46%
Globo 2+ goals
13%
Globo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
81%
Globo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Globo away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.33 + Globo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Globo attack 0.57 + Santa Cruz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
61%
level
25%
Globo scores more
14%

Santa Cruz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Santa Cruz 3–0 Globo

Santa Cruz beat Globo 3-0 in Serie D on June 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel in Recife, Pernambuco.