Globo 3–3 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats | Serie C

Globo

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz

6/17/2019

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Globo38%

×Draw29%

Santa Cruz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GloboExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

Globo

1.18

Santa Cruz

1.07

Globo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

1.18

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Globo

1.35

Santa Cruz

0.96

allows per match

Globo

1.18

Santa Cruz

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Globo+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Globo ↓

Santa Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Globo or draw

67%

Globo or Santa Cruz

71%

Draw or Santa Cruz

62%

Winning margin

Globo wins by 2+

16%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Globo 1+ goals

69%

Globo 2+ goals

33%

Globo 3+ goals

12%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

66%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

29%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Globo (draw refunded)

54%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Globo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Globo attack 1.35 + Santa Cruz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Santa Cruz attack 0.96 + Globo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Globo scores more

38%

level

29%

Santa Cruz scores more

33%

Globo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Globo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff