Santa Cruz 0–2 Cartagena LU II: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cartagena LU II

1/10/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz34%

×Draw29%

Cartagena LU II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchCartagena LU II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Santa Cruz

1.06

Cartagena LU II

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.88

creates per match

1.04

1.18

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Santa Cruz

0.88

Cartagena LU II

1.04

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.18

Cartagena LU II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Cartagena LU II →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

63%

Santa Cruz or Cartagena LU II

71%

Draw or Cartagena LU II

66%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

13%

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

65%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

29%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

67%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

30%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

48%

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

34%

level

29%

Cartagena LU II scores more

37%

Cartagena LU II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 0–2 Cartagena LU II

Cartagena LU II beat Santa Cruz 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.

Santa Cruz vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 0–2 Cartagena LU II