Cartagena LU II 0–1 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Cartagena LU II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Cruz

5/10/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartagena LU II36%

×Draw28%

Santa Cruz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena LU IIExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.14

Cartagena LU II

1.15

Santa Cruz

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

1.29

0.98

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Cartagena LU II

1.47

Santa Cruz

1.29

allows per match

Cartagena LU II

0.98

Santa Cruz

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Santa Cruz →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw

64%

Cartagena LU II or Santa Cruz

72%

Draw or Santa Cruz

64%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

15%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

68%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

32%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

11%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

32%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

50%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more

36%

level

28%

Santa Cruz scores more

36%

Cartagena LU II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz beat Cartagena LU II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.

Cartagena LU II vs Santa Cruz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Santa Cruz