Santa Cruz 1–0 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bala Azul

9/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz36%

×Draw30%

Bala Azul34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.04

Santa Cruz

1.09

Bala Azul

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.88

creates per match

0.90

1.18

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Santa Cruz

0.88

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.18

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Bala Azul →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

66%

Santa Cruz or Bala Azul

70%

Draw or Bala Azul

64%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

15%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

66%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

30%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

10%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

65%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

28%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

52%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

36%

level

30%

Bala Azul scores more

34%

Santa Cruz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul

Santa Cruz beat Bala Azul 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.

Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul