Bala Azul 0–1 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Cruz

1/25/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bala Azul33%

×Draw31%

Santa Cruz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.04

Bala Azul

0.97

Santa Cruz

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

1.29

0.80

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Santa Cruz

1.29

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Santa Cruz

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Santa Cruz →

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

64%

Bala Azul or Santa Cruz

69%

Draw or Santa Cruz

67%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

12%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

62%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

25%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

65%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

28%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

47%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bala Azul scores more

33%

level

31%

Santa Cruz scores more

36%

Santa Cruz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff