Santa Cruz FC 1–1 Escorpiones Belén: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Escorpiones Belén

4/18/2026

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santa Cruz FC39%

×Draw26%

Escorpiones Belén35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Cruz FCExpected goals in this matchEscorpiones Belén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Santa Cruz FC

1.42

Escorpiones Belén

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

1.33

creates per match

1.60

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Santa Cruz FC

1.33

Escorpiones Belén

1.60

allows per match

Santa Cruz FC

1.07

Escorpiones Belén

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz FC+0.00on par

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz FC ↓

Escorpiones Belén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Cruz FC or draw

65%

Santa Cruz FC or Escorpiones Belén

74%

Draw or Escorpiones Belén

61%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz FC wins by 2+

18%

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Santa Cruz FC 1+ goals

76%

Santa Cruz FC 2+ goals

41%

Santa Cruz FC 3+ goals

17%

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

74%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

38%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz FC (draw refunded)

53%

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz FC attack 1.33 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Santa Cruz FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Cruz FC scores more

39%

level

26%

Escorpiones Belén scores more

35%

Santa Cruz FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Cruz FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff