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Escorpiones Belén vs Santa Cruz FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belénadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Cruz FC
Santa Cruz FC
4/25/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Escorpiones Belén58%
×Draw21%
Santa Cruz FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
2.05
Santa Cruz FC
1.13

Escorpiones Belén creates 81% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Santa Cruz FC
0.73

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Santa Cruz FC
1.73

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Santa Cruz FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Santa Cruz FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
80%
Escorpiones Belén or Santa Cruz FC
79%
Draw or Santa Cruz FC
42%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
35%
Santa Cruz FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
87%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
61%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
33%
Santa Cruz FC 1+ goals
68%
Santa Cruz FC 2+ goals
31%
Santa Cruz FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
74%
Santa Cruz FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Santa Cruz FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Santa Cruz FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

Santa Cruz FC attack 0.73 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
58%
level
21%
Santa Cruz FC scores more
20%

Escorpiones Belén at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs Santa Cruz FC

Escorpiones Belén beat Santa Cruz FC 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on April 25, 2026.