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Santa Clara vs Sporting CP — Taça de Portugal 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting CP
Sporting CPadvanced
Gabriel Silva 85'
Lucas Soares 28'
F. Ioannidis 98'
L. Suarez 90' (pen)
J. Simoes 12'
12/18/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santa Clara29%
×Draw24%
Sporting CP47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.28
Sporting CP
1.69

Sporting CP creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.67
Sporting CP
2.05

allows per match

Santa Clara
1.33
Sporting CP
0.89

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
53%
Santa Clara or Sporting CP
76%
Draw or Sporting CP
71%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
12%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
72%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
37%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
14%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
82%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
50%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
38%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.67 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + Santa Clara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santa Clara scores more
29%
level
24%
Sporting CP scores more
47%

Sporting CP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Simoes↳ I. Fresneda
28'
Lucas Soares↳ J. Tavares
41'
Luis Javier Suárez
44'
Gabriel Silva
59'
L. Rocha← F. Venancio
59'
Paulo Victor← S. Lima
66'
Brenner← Lucas Soares
66'
T. Duarte← J. Costa
66'
F. Ioannidis← Alisson Santos
74'
Luquinhas
75'
G. Kochorashvili← J. Simoes
75'
S. Blopa← Matheus Reis
80'
P. Ferreira← J. Tavares
85'
Gabriel Silva↳ Luquinhas
88'
Paulo Victor
89'
Iván Fresneda
90+16'
Serginho
90'
R. Mangas← M. Araujo
90'
F. Goncalves← I. Fresneda
90'
L. SuarezPenalty
95'
Adriano Firmino← Gabriel Silva
98'
F. Ioannidis↳ M. Hjulmand
111'
Salvador Blopa

Possession

40%Santa

Shots

8Santa

Statistics

SantaSporting
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots17
4Corners6
23Fouls21
Shots
8Total Shots17
6On Target5
1Off Target8
1Blocked4
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
23Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Taça de Portugal: Santa Clara 2–2 Sporting CP

Santa Clara and Sporting CP drew 2-2 in Taça de Portugal on December 18, 2025.

Goals: J. Simoes (12'), Lucas Soares (28'), Gabriel Silva (85'), L. Suarez (90' pen), F. Ioannidis (98').

Sporting CP controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 8.