Santa Clara 0–1 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Santa Clara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP

Geny Catamo 50'

4/12/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 29Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Santa Clara28%

×Draw29%

Sporting CP43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ClaraExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.22

Santa Clara

0.94

Sporting CP

1.22

Sporting CP creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.61

0.83

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Santa Clara

1.07

Sporting CP

1.61

allows per match

Santa Clara

0.83

Sporting CP

0.81

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

Santa Clara-0.13scores less

Sporting CP+0.68scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw

57%

Santa Clara or Sporting CP

71%

Draw or Sporting CP

72%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+

10%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals

61%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

24%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

7%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

70%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

34%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

40%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.83 · 16 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.07 + Sporting CP defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sporting CP attack 1.61 + Santa Clara defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Clara scores more

28%

level

29%

Sporting CP scores more

43%

Sporting CP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Geny Catamo

Sporting CP · F

7.7

Match Events

10'

25'

40'

50'

56'

63'

Serginho← Daniel Borges

63'

João Costa← Matheus Pereira

66'

J. St. Juste← Eduardo Quaresma

66'

Geovany Quenda← Iván Fresneda

70'

Ousmane DiomandeGoal cancelled

75'

Wendel← Vinícius Lopes

77'

C. Harder← Geny Catamo

81'

Ricardinho← Diogo Calila

81'

Matheusinho← Pedro Ferreira

82'

Morten Hjulmand

83'

Luís Rocha

87'

Pote← Trincão

87'

Matheus Reis← M. Araújo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaSporting

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots7

0.69Expected Goals (xG)0.82

3Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots7

1On Target4

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

256Total Passes462

166Accurate Passes372

65%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.73Goals Prevented0.73

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1