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Santa Clara vs AVS — Primeira Liga 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AVS
AVS
8/31/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 4Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Santa Clara55%
×Draw26%
AVS19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.54
AVS
0.78

Santa Clara creates 97% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.07
AVS
0.73

allows per match

Santa Clara
0.83
AVS
2.00

finishing

Santa Clara-0.13scores less
AVS-0.23scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
81%
Santa Clara or AVS
74%
Draw or AVS
45%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
29%
AVS wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
79%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
45%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
20%
AVS 1+ goals
54%
AVS 2+ goals
18%
AVS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
74%
AVS (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.83 · 16 matches

AVS away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.07 + AVS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

AVS attack 0.73 + Santa Clara defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Santa Clara scores more
55%
level
26%
AVS scores more
19%

Santa Clara at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Clara vs AVS

Santa Clara beat AVS 2-1 in Primeira Liga on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores.