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AVS vs Santa Clara — Primeira Liga 2018

AVS
AVS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
2/8/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 21Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

AVS31%
×Draw27%
Santa Clara41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AVS
1.10
Santa Clara
1.31

Santa Clara creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

AVS
0.91
Santa Clara
1.01

allows per match

AVS
1.60
Santa Clara
1.30

finishing

AVS+0.09on par
Santa Clara-0.22scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AVS or draw
59%
AVS or Santa Clara
73%
Draw or Santa Clara
69%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+
12%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals
67%
AVS 2+ goals
30%
AVS 3+ goals
10%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
73%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
38%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)
43%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.60 · 13 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 0.91 + Santa Clara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Santa Clara attack 1.01 + AVS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AVS scores more
31%
level
27%
Santa Clara scores more
41%

Santa Clara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: AVS 1–2 Santa Clara

Santa Clara beat AVS 2-1 in Primeira Liga on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.