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Santa Catalina Atlético vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Rafael
San Rafael
1/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético40%
×Draw27%
San Rafael32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.30
San Rafael
1.13

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
68%
Santa Catalina Atlético or San Rafael
73%
Draw or San Rafael
60%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
18%
San Rafael wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
73%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
37%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
14%
San Rafael 1+ goals
68%
San Rafael 2+ goals
31%
San Rafael 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
56%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
40%
level
27%
San Rafael scores more
32%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santa Catalina Atlético 2–1 San Rafael

Santa Catalina Atlético beat San Rafael 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.