San Rafael 2–1 Santa Catalina Atlético

San Rafael

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Catalina Atlético

8/25/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Rafael63%

×Draw20%

Santa Catalina Atlético16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San RafaelExpected goals in this matchSanta Catalina Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.94

San Rafael

2.07

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.94

San Rafael creates 120% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

1.85

creates per match

0.57

1.30

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

San Rafael

1.85

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.57

allows per match

San Rafael

1.30

Santa Catalina Atlético

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw

84%

San Rafael or Santa Catalina Atlético

80%

Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético

37%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+

39%

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals

87%

San Rafael 2+ goals

61%

San Rafael 3+ goals

34%

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

61%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

24%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)

80%

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.07

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

San Rafael scores more

63%

level

20%

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

16%

San Rafael at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: San Rafael 2–1 Santa Catalina Atlético

San Rafael beat Santa Catalina Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.

San Rafael vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: San Rafael 2–1 Santa Catalina Atlético