Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Catalina Atlético vs Poblense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Poblense
Poblense
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético23%
×Draw26%
Poblense50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
0.90
Poblense
1.47

Poblense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 83 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Poblense
1.63

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Poblense
0.72

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Poblense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
50%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Poblense
74%
Draw or Poblense
77%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
8%
Poblense wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
59%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
23%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
6%
Poblense 1+ goals
77%
Poblense 2+ goals
43%
Poblense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
31%
Poblense (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Poblense attack 1.63 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
23%
level
26%
Poblense scores more
50%

Poblense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santa Catalina Atlético 0–4 Poblense

Poblense beat Santa Catalina Atlético 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.