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Poblense vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
CANC
22:00
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 36Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Poblense77%
×Draw16%
Santa Catalina Atlético7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
2.30
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.53

Poblense creates 334% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
93%
Poblense or Santa Catalina Atlético
84%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
23%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
53%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
90%
Poblense 2+ goals
67%
Poblense 3+ goals
40%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
41%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
10%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
92%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.30

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Poblense scores more
77%
level
16%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
7%

Poblense at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Poblense face Santa Catalina Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Poblense hosting Santa Catalina Atlético. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Poblense host Santa Catalina Atlético at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.