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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
0 – 3
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
8/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético45%
×Draw25%
Ferriolense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.52
Ferriolense
1.18

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
70%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Ferriolense
75%
Draw or Ferriolense
55%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
22%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
78%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
45%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
20%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
69%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
33%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
60%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
45%
level
25%
Ferriolense scores more
30%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Catalina Atlético 0 – 3 Ferriolense

Ferriolense beat Santa Catalina Atlético 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.