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Ferriolense vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Ferriolense
Ferriolense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
5/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ferriolense55%
×Draw24%
Santa Catalina Atlético21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferriolense
1.70
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.96

Ferriolense creates 77% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ferriolense
1.10
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Ferriolense
1.34
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Ferriolense+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferriolense ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ferriolense or draw
79%
Ferriolense or Santa Catalina Atlético
76%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
45%

Winning margin

Ferriolense wins by 2+
30%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ferriolense 1+ goals
82%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
51%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
62%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
25%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferriolense (draw refunded)
72%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferriolense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferriolense attack 1.10 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Ferriolense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ferriolense scores more
55%
level
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
21%

Ferriolense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ferriolense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferriolense 4 – 1 Santa Catalina Atlético

Ferriolense beat Santa Catalina Atlético 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol in Mallorca.