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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético44%
×Draw26%
Collerense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.48
Collerense
1.16

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
70%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Collerense
74%
Draw or Collerense
56%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
22%
Collerense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
77%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
43%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
19%
Collerense 1+ goals
69%
Collerense 2+ goals
32%
Collerense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
60%
Collerense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Collerense attack 1.00 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
44%
level
26%
Collerense scores more
30%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Catalina Atlético 1 – 2 Collerense

Collerense beat Santa Catalina Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.