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Collerense vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
CANC
00:00
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Collerense57%
×Draw23%
Santa Catalina Atlético20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.77
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.94

Collerense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
80%
Collerense or Santa Catalina Atlético
77%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
43%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
32%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
83%
Collerense 2+ goals
53%
Collerense 3+ goals
26%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
61%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
74%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Collerense scores more
57%
level
23%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
20%

Collerense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Collerense face Santa Catalina Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Collerense hosting Santa Catalina Atlético. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Collerense host Santa Catalina Atlético at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.