Santa Catalina Atlético 1–2 Cardassar

Santa Catalina Atlético

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cardassar

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 2Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético39%

×Draw27%

Cardassar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Catalina AtléticoExpected goals in this matchCardassar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Cardassar

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.07

creates per match

1.09

1.31

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.07

Cardassar

1.09

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Cardassar

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Cardassar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Cardassar →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw

66%

Santa Catalina Atlético or Cardassar

73%

Draw or Cardassar

61%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

18%

Cardassar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

73%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

38%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

14%

Cardassar 1+ goals

70%

Cardassar 2+ goals

34%

Cardassar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

54%

Cardassar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Cardassar away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Cardassar defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cardassar attack 1.09 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

39%

level

27%

Cardassar scores more

34%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff