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Cardassar vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Cardassar
Cardassar
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
5/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 7Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cardassar55%
×Draw24%
Santa Catalina Atlético22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardassar
1.75
Santa Catalina Atlético
1.00

Cardassar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardassar
1.22
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Cardassar
1.44
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw
78%
Cardassar or Santa Catalina Atlético
76%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
45%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+
31%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals
83%
Cardassar 2+ goals
52%
Cardassar 3+ goals
25%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
63%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
26%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)
72%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cardassar scores more
55%
level
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
22%

Cardassar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cardassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Cardassar 4–2 Santa Catalina Atlético

Cardassar beat Santa Catalina Atlético 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar in Sant Llorenç des Cardassar.