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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binissalem
Binissalem
1/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético38%
×Draw28%
Binissalem34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.20
Binissalem
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
66%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Binissalem
72%
Draw or Binissalem
62%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
16%
Binissalem wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
34%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Binissalem 1+ goals
67%
Binissalem 2+ goals
30%
Binissalem 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
53%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
38%
level
28%
Binissalem scores more
34%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Binissalem

Santa Catalina Atlético and Binissalem drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.