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Binissalem vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Binissalem
Binissalem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
10/31/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadio Miquel Pons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Binissalem60%
×Draw24%
Santa Catalina Atlético17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binissalem
1.69
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.76

Binissalem creates 122% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 28 away

creates per match

Binissalem
1.09
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Binissalem
0.96
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Binissalem+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binissalem ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Binissalem or draw
83%
Binissalem or Santa Catalina Atlético
76%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
40%

Winning margin

Binissalem wins by 2+
33%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Binissalem 1+ goals
82%
Binissalem 2+ goals
50%
Binissalem 3+ goals
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
53%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
18%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Binissalem (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binissalem at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binissalem attack 1.09 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Binissalem defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Binissalem scores more
60%
level
24%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
17%

Binissalem at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Binissalem 1–1 Santa Catalina Atlético

Binissalem and Santa Catalina Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Miquel Pons in Mallorca.