Santa Catalina Atlético 1–0 Alcúdia: Result & Stats

Santa Catalina Atlético

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alcúdia

3/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético45%

×Draw25%

Alcúdia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Catalina AtléticoExpected goals in this matchAlcúdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.23

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.55

Alcúdia

1.23

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 79 away

1.07

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.07

Alcúdia

1.15

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Alcúdia

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Alcúdia →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw

70%

Santa Catalina Atlético or Alcúdia

75%

Draw or Alcúdia

55%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

22%

Alcúdia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

79%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

46%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

20%

Alcúdia 1+ goals

71%

Alcúdia 2+ goals

35%

Alcúdia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

60%

Alcúdia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

45%

level

25%

Alcúdia scores more

30%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff