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Alcúdia vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
11/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 7Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alcúdia61%
×Draw22%
Santa Catalina Atlético17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
1.86
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.86

Alcúdia creates 116% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
83%
Alcúdia or Santa Catalina Atlético
78%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
39%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
36%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
84%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
55%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
28%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
58%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
21%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alcúdia scores more
61%
level
22%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
17%

Alcúdia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcúdia vs Santa Catalina Atlético

Alcúdia and Santa Catalina Atlético drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.